Reflection

This is the first non-fiction book I’ve read since Gr. 12 and I’m pretty proud for having read through the whole thing. I learned so much during this course of this project because ever since I started university, I have become so out of touch with the world around me. Because of this book, I watch the news more and have more intellectual conversations about the world. In addition, I always thought that I would most likely work in Alberta, being in chemical engineering. However, I’m going to look at internships that are out of North America, like China.

Shanghai - from http://www.traveltci.com/images/shanghai.jpg

I really want to move to Shanghai to experience life there, the busy lifestyle. I didn’t even know that Shanghai has now surpassed Hong Kong in economy and has a lower crime rate! Reading this book has made me realize that the world is not as small as it seems. Everything is interconnected. China has so much potential and I want to be part of it. Being both a Chinese and Calgarian seems perfect since China is building a $2 billion pipeline to transport oil extracted from Alberta to BC for shipping. (Please refer to http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/05/22/CHINA.TMP for more on China and Alberta oil sands deals).

Reading this book was also extremely frustrating. It lacks a plot and with each chapter zooming in on another country, it is difficult to be immersed in the book. Even in my writing of the blog, you can see that I change from general conclusions within a region, and then to individual countries because sometimes, it is difficult to connect the dots within a region. In addition, there is just so much information presented in these pages that I sometimes feel that I need to stop and let it absorb for a bit. Sometimes, the writing style throws me off because though Khanna is an excellent writer, he tends to use many double negatives in his sentences which convolute the meaning. However, I think the examples Khanna used really emphasized the point he was trying to make in the book. In summary, the book was not an easy read, but the knowledge gained from it was worth it.

Thank you Professor Eggermont because by forcing me to finish the book and come up with conclusions in this blog, I have opened my eyes to see the world as full of opportunity. I don’t have to rely on North America for my career as there are many promising places to go. This is huge because I never want to be stuck in a city and I thought that I was going to stay in Calgary my entire life. I never knew how much I was missing by not being aware of global affairs because I never realized that understanding the world affects me and my life.

This is the last post for this blog. I hope you learned as much as I have reading the book and feel free to post any comments. Thank you again, for reading it and maybe I’ll write another one in the future!

Cheers!
Candy

Conclusion: The Search for Equilibrium in a Non-American World

End of the book!

Throughout the book, the case is clear that Parag Khanna feels like the United States is loosing its influence and is now not the only superpower in the world. In the conclusion, Khanna talks about how the three superpowers: Europe, China and America is like a stool that is wobbling (p.339). We don’t know what is going to happen in world politics in the next decades because each superpower is globalizing the second and third world nations. The second world nations are also influencing the superpowers, which makes spheres of influence extremely convoluted. The US has to be careful on how they are dealing with external affairs because each step the US misses, another country will use as an opportunity. In fact, Khanna says that if the US doesn’t realize the world situation, and keeps thinking that their way of life is the “de facto standard for the planet” (p.333), they may soon find themselves in the second world.

US needs to get off its high horse - from http://n3t.net/humor/motivation/high_horse.jpg

The most important step for the world to take for managing global order is diplomacy: “the management of international relations by negotiation” (p. 314). “The United States offers military and regime protection and aid, China offers full-service, conditionality-free relationships, and Europe offers deep reform and economic association with its union” (p.324), so each of these free powers are appealing to second world nations. With similar economic goals, these countries continue to act as “frenemies” and without diplomacy, history will repeat itself, war. Let’s end this post with Parag Khanna’s final words: “As the second world shapes both geopolitics and globalization, diplomacy becomes ever more an art” (p.341).

Part V: Asia for Asians

This post will be based on:
Ch. 27 - From Outside in to Inside Out
Ch. 28 - China's First-World Seduction
Ch. 29 - Malaysia and Indonesia: The Greater Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere
Ch. 30 - Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam: The Inner Triangle
Ch. 31 - Size Matters: The Four Chinas

What is interesting about China is that it is still considered a second world country, but still has the superpower status that the US and Europe has. Their main strategy of success is "by actually giving larger gifts and tribute to its vassals than it received, an elegant facade to mask the reality of dominance" (p.258) in addition to buying as much as they can. China's relationship with South Asian countries is one of friendship, where Thai and Chinese business men "don't just cooperate; they bond, declaring that they are "none other than brother"" (p.296).

South East Asia - http://www.habitatforhumanity.org.uk/images/where/AsiaPacific_map.gif

The United States once had strong ties with South Asian countries but is now being replaced by China, whose ties with each country are even stronger than the ties amongst themselves. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is siding with China, not only because they are afraid of what will happen if they don't but also because they believe that China has their backs. This apparently, is one of the reasons why these countries are relying on the US less and less. During Asian financial crisis, the Americans’ foreign policy abandoned these South East nations leaving scars on their relationships. For example, “Thailand was deeply insulted at not being bailed out by the United States during its 1997 currency crisis, just three years after the United states had rescued Mexico” (P. 295). With China offering huge economic incentives, and with a shared culture, it will be extremely difficult for the US to be at where they once were, especially in the East.
This is a video on Thailand and Vietnam

This section of the world is complicate in that each of the countries has their unique situation. Their histories are varied and are each led by different people. As usual, the type of government within a country does not matter to China, what matters is the business from that country. For example, Myanmar (used to be Burma), the country’s political system is a military junta (a country led by military leaders). This doesn’t matter because Chinese intermarriage and land acquisition have resulted in the cities that are Chinese populated with signs in Chinese. Myanmar is basically a province of China. Each country is doing their own thing, and all contributing to the increased unity of “Asianess” in the region, with China at the forefront.

In Southeast Asia, China still does what it does best. Because these countries are so near China, it is an area where the Chinese Diasporas can build an economy. By “relaxing investment laws and, potentially, offering dual citizenship to overseas Chinese” (p.274), China is taking steps in making sure that the Chinese overseas will always sees themselves as not Malaysian, or Indonesian etc., but a Chinese. This is especially important because in countries like Indonesia, the small percentage of Chinese control 70% of the country’s economy.

It may seem like China is the model that all nations in the world should emulate, but there are actually some problems that China still has to face. Back to the example of Burma/Myanmar, because China has basically established it as a province, buying most of its timber and forests, gem deposits, and plans to acquire 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas and oil, it is loosened its borders to illegal trafficking, smugglers, and AIDS. As Khanna puts it, “China is no more capable of policing its vast borders than Europe or the United States are” (p.294). In addition, China also has six of the world’s top ten polluted cities and with the Chinese who still want to have fresh air and scenery, it is up to China to establish many more environmental laws and develop more technologies and conservation techniques. Not only does the pollution within China affect Chinese, it also affects the world, as it will soon be responsible for 1/3 of the pollution in California. The countries that Chinese industrialize will soon face the same problems, as there is massive deforestation and raw materials mining.

It is difficult to resist the Chinese superpower because of the benefits of being associated with it. Even the US Corporation Wal-Mart has a vast majority of its goods produced in China and employees close to 200 thousand Chinese (p.309).

Wal-Mart factory in China - From http://www.chinalaborwatch.org/images/walmartfactory.jpg

China is surly one of the world's superpowers. “The thirty-year period ending in 2010 is meant to be remembered as one in which China reclaimed territories wrongfully seized by the West, delivered massive economic growth and development, and had its greatness recognized by hosting the 2008 Summer Olympics” (P.302).

Part IV: In Search of the “Middle East”

This post will be based on:
Ch. 20 – The Shattered Belt
Ch. 21 – The Maghreb: Europe’s Southern Shore
Ch. 22 – Egypt: Between Bureaucrats and Theocrats
Ch. 23 – The Mashreq: Road Maps
Ch. 24 – The Former Iraq: Buffer, Black Hole, and Broken Boundary
Ch. 25 – Iran: Virtues and Vices
Ch. 26 – Gulf Streams
Conclusion: Arabian Sand Dunes From http://mabryonline.org/blogs/howard/archives/n_africa_mid_east_pol_95.jpg

The Middle East is an extremely important area to consider, especially when it comes to globalization. This area has natural resources, money, labour, and talent – therefore, the means to develop itself and bring it out of the second world and into the first. However, each of these countries has shaky government and religious disagreements.

Europe

The North African region of Maghreb is the backyard of the European superpower. A ironic problem, that provides control to the EU is that there is labour shortages paired with high unemployment rates of its people. Because the countries within this region cannot educate its youth for the jobs that are available, Europe, through the countries of Turkey and Ukraine, provide labour for its industries. This is another reason why Europe needs to expand. By Turkey and Ukraine providing Maghreb with labour, the EU is much more control with the affairs of these countries. “Europe can be far stricter with Maghreb governments ….forcing them to support entrepreneurs and do away with opaque investment laws” (p.178). Not only does the EU help with the market, I believe that it genuinely believes in helping its citizens. In Algeria, the EU is pressuring it to spend its energy revenues on agriculture and infrastructure when 97% of its profits are oil and gas, most of which go to the EU.

In Egypt, Europeans are even having greater influence than America. Europeans have models of government which the Arabs would like to emulate which gives the Europeans much respect in these countries. In Egypt, EU is guiding Arab democratization “toward decentralized parliamentary systems over the current presidential ones” (p.194), all while building Egyptian markets. Turkey drawing on Syrian flag - from www.thememriblog.org/image/1608.JPG

Turkey, is again a strategic country for the EU to incorporate because it places the EU in close contact with Syria, Iraq and Iran. The peacekeeping missions within the Mashreq area is mainly lead by the European Union, building transportation network guaranteeing pipelines from these nations to Turkey. This provides the EU with access to exports and markets. In the near collapse of Iraq, the Kurds, who already have their own government, will eventually form the state Kurdistan. Turkish companies are already building airports and roads for this new nation, in return for oil security to Turkey. Hence, another reason EU should integrate Turkey. At this rate of development, however, I’m not sure Turkey will need the EU as much as the EU needs Turkey in the future.

America

Similar to the previous section, America has once again infringed upon the sovereignty of another nation. In this case, the most important to note is Iraq. Ever since the American-led War on Terrorism, the US has proven themselves to be “a superpower whose intelligence does not match its aspirations”. Since the removal of Saddam Hussein, the politics within the Middle East has changed. The Kurds in the region are slowly going to form into the country of Kurdistan which poses a threat to the countries of Syria and Iran. The redrawing of the map will occur and competition arises for the US, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria to take what they can get. With these Middle East countries lobbying for land, the US government must be careful of which to be friendly with, who to ignore so that it can have as much influence in this nation as it can get, so that it won’t be overshadowed by the other superpowers. America already is not on friendly terms with Iran, a country with rich oil and gas reserves, a strong military and navy, and an advancing nuclear program. Only a couple days ago, the United States is criticising Iran’s nuclear program once again. According to Radio Free Europe News on Aug. 10, 2009, “Iran is rejecting foreign criticism of the mass trial of opposition protesters, saying the condemnations smack of intervention in its internal affairs” (http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Rejects_Criticism_As_US_Sets_Nuclear_Talks_Deadline/1796343.html). Iran doesn’t need the Americans anymore, and this is just creating hostility between them: “Telling us to give up our nuclear program is as insulting as saying we cannot order something in a restaurant which everyone else is having” (p.230). America just needs to get out of other people’s business! Iran and the US - from http://mabryonline.org/blogs/howard/archives/n_africa_mid_east_pol_95.jpg

China

Similar to the other sections, China is still implementing the same strategies in the Middle East which some of these countries are learning from: “Some of us Gulf businessmen are learning fast, working hard, and taking risks like the Asians” (p.243). The success of Dubai and the United Arab Emirates is due to taking risks. In 1985, Dubai “intentionally neglected taxes, visas, local ownership requirements, and other hassles on the premise that re-export aloe would bring in vast sums of cash” (p.244). China is gaining influence in the Middle East because the Chinese are buying as much as they can: “Chinese and Malaysian oil companies have also bid aggressively to ensure a global balance in Libya’s oil exports, and are willing to swallow less favourable terms including high revenue-sharing costs” (P.185), building good relations: “China has cancelled most African nations’ debts, provided soft loans, and increased imports from Africa by a factor of ten, moves that compete with and undermine Western aid policies that are increasingly perceived as ineffective” (p.189), building infrastructure: “Chinese engineering firms based in Jordan have (also) built four of its five new dams with remarkable efficiency” (p.212), offering low cost goods, and honour to the people: “where its diplomats show difference to local culture by learning Arabic and even taking Arabic names” (p.194).

However, China is not attempting to lift this area of the world out of poverty, but just trying to gain for its own selfish gain. Like in South America, China is providing steep competition to factories in these areas, limiting them to raw materials based economy.

Summary

This section of the book also talks about the history, political and religious struggles within the Middle East. The world needs to understand that if they want the governments to stabilize, the Middle East just needs to work out its own kinks: the EU and the United States “may decide to cut their losses and attempt to contain the region and allow an Arab-Islamist civil war to sap its virulent energies” (p. 253). Maybe the stabilization within these nations is not what the superpowers want. What if it makes the Middle East too powerful creating another superpower. With its wealth and resources, it can control the world through its oil. Right now, the primary concern for the superpowers is to not deal with internal struggles within these nations, but to secure themselves trade, and a relationship with them. If not now, it may be too late.

From http://www.emptyquarter.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/democracy-middle-east-cartoon.jpg

Part III: The End of the Monroe Doctrine

This post will be based on:
Ch.14 - The New Rules of the Game
Ch. 15 - Mexico: The Umbilical Cord
Ch. 16 - Venezuela: Bolivar's Revenge
Ch. 17 - Columbia: The Andean Balkans?
Ch. 18 - Brazil: The Southern Pole
Ch. 19 - Argentina and Chile: Very Fraternal Twins
Conclusion: Beyond Monroe

Map of Latin America - from http://www.as.miami.edu/clas/images/Latin%20America%20Map.jpg

The most likely superpower to spread its sphere of influence is the US in Mexico and South American region. Because of the immensity of oil in these regions, any superpower that is partners with it will have be energy sufficient. With China having an upper hand in Eurasia, and the EU developing close ties with many Eastern European nations, it is America that needs the support of the nations of the Americas more than anyone else.

Mexico

Throughout history, America has presented much resentment to its neighbours in its "hot-and-cold style of diplomacy" (p.127). In the case of Mexico, America's biggest task is to limit the amount of illegal immigrants crossing into its border. This amount of immigration is good and bad for the States. The immigrants take the jobs that the Americans don't want, but the number of people comming is putting a strain in the American health care and education systems. I think the Americans have an obligation to keep up with the illegal immigrants because it is mostly their fault that the Mexicans are fleeing their homeland. Ever since 2001, China has "outpaced Mexico in manufacturing and textile exports to the United States". Because of this, many jobs were lost, and with nowhere else to turn, America is the first place people went. Like the situation in Mexico, many of the South American countries are not fully on the same page as Americans because it has let them down.

Venezuela

In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez runs the show. Like I mentioned earlier, countries are made up of people and people are the ones who ultimately decide which superpower to lean on. Chavez is the supreme dictator of a country that can possibly produce even more oil than Saudi Arabia. When the US endorsed a coup against Chavez in 2002, Chavez demonized the US when the coup was unsuccessful, since it is a threat to his "Bolivarian revolution"(p.141). Ever since then, US is not a welcomed guest in Venezuela. Therefore, Chavez sides with China, lowering the flow of oil to the US, provide oil to China and selling American refineries to invest in Asian ones. In exchange, China helped Venezuela by building houses, a communications network and irrigation systems. Even though Chavez is not on friendly terms with the States, it can never fully move itself away from this superpower because if closeness to it.

Hugo Chavez - from http://www.africapresse.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/hugo-chavez.jpg

Colombia

Like the situation in Mexico, Colombia is experiencing American outsourcing of textile production industries in favour of those in China. The US is also limiting the diversification of exports wanting more coffee, oil, bananas and flowers. Because there is reduced industry in the area, many people are turning into oppourtunities in the black market. Columbia is the source of "almost all of the cocaine and half the heroin sold in the United States" (p.146). The Americans are trying to combat the drug trade but in order to do so, they will need to create more jobs and industry within Colombia. Colombia is even a bigger asset today it imediately follows Venezuela in oil reserves.

This video is of John McCain during his electoral campaign. He supports free trade with Columbia while Obama opposes it. Is this a smart move for Obama?

The other superpowers are also active in Colombia. The EU is supporting farmers and entrepreneurs to encourage a shift away from just raw materials exports, and China is desperately searching for oil deposits, while dropping its goods to the Colombian market. Therefore, if American doesn't pick up its game, another nation will soon take precidence.

Brazil

Brazil is a country that has a huge economy, one of the world's top ten. Because of this, it is tremendous say in the affiars of South America. Again, America did not please another South American nation. In WWII, Brazil helped American by providing them with steel, however, 50 years later, the US blocks steel imports from Brazil. That was not a very good move by the States. In 2003, Brazil formed the G-20 coalition with China, Inda, and South Africa, giving a valid opposition to the EU and America.

Brazil steel factory - from http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/11/18/business/18steel.600.gif

Argentina

Argentina had a financial meltdown and foreign investors are scared to invest in it. Therefore, the country is now dependent on agricultural exports to China for its restoring, giving China much power in Argentina. Because of high-tariffs and heavy subsidy policies of the US for trade, Argentina is turning to China for better trade. As usual, China is willing to give out the money if it means having control over a country's resources

Chile

Chile is a country that is close to joining the first world. It has free trade agreements with the States, EU, China, Japan and Korea. This country is willing to cooperate and is not letting grudges be in the way of economic success. It is willing to bargin with countries to get what it wants, like giving "Bolivia access to its ports in exchange for almost all if the oil and gas Chile needs" (p.164).

Summary

In order for a superpower to succeed, it has to think about its actions and its affect on the emotions of the people within outside nations. In order for a second world nation to move up to the first world, it has to learn that it cannot base its economy on the emotions of its people.

Part II: Affairs of the Heartland

This post will be on:
Ch. 7 - The Silk Road and the Great Game
Ch. 8 - The Russia that Was
Ch. 9 - Tibet and Xinjiang: The New Bamboo Curtain
Ch.10 - Kazakhstan: "Happiness is Multiple Pipelines"
Ch. 11 - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Sovereign of Everything, Master of Nothing
Ch. 12 - Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan: Men Behaving Badly
Ch. 13 - Afghanistan and Pakistan: Taming South-Central Asia
Conclusion: A Change of Heart

Map of Eurasia (Siberia and the Far East is in Russia (yellow)) - from http://media.photobucket.com/image/eurasia%20map%20and%20far%20east/gaygaygay-9/asia-map.gif

European Union

This part, mainly about the extension of power of China, actually brings to mind many inadequacies about the other superpowers: EU and America. The European Union, though praised in previous chapter displayed many inadequacies when dealing with the countries in the section of the novel. It seems as if they have too many rules that each country must comply to before they can join the EU. In countries with oligarchies that control its economy, as severe as those in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgystan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan it is difficult for these countries to comply with EU eligibility requirements. No matter how much that country wants to be part of the EU and get with EU incentives, each country is run be a person, and that person's number one priority is himself, and his power within the country. It is true that these oil-rich countries need foreign assistance to extract its oil, but there is not only one superpower ready to help.

As I was reading this section, an experience came back to mind. I was actively in Model United Nations throughout high school and I think decision making in the EU must be similar. During the simulation, resolutions were formulated, each country can have their say in the policies up for discussion, and then there is a vote at the end. In the entire day, many ten to fifteen resolutions can be acknowledge out of maybe fifty that the countries have prepared. At the end of the day, less than three of these resolutions would actually be passed in an assembly, and then these resolutions would have to have to be brought into the General Assembly for approval. This process is extremely inefficient and even if the resolution is passed, there is no guarantee that proper steps will be taken. In the case of the EU, it is unlike the other two superpowers because it cannot make decisions on its own, it needs the collaboration of the nations within it. Now, it is good if the nations have similar opinions, but as the EU expands, there will be plenty of diversification within it and a consensus on policies will be similar to that of the UN. The EU wants to extend its sphere of influence into the Heartland, but doing so will cause internal turmoil.

From http://www.cartoonstock.com/cartoonview.asp?search=site&catref=kscn584&MA_Category=&ANDkeyword=EU&ORkeyword=&TITLEkeyword=&NEGATIVEkeyword=

I think in the case of the Heartland, EU will put money into these places to try to improve its infrastructure and poverty because it doesn't want to be completely shut out of its rich oil reserves. For example, p.87 talks about how Kazahstan, rich in oil, cannot be bribed into accepting Western military bases because this would undermine its relation with its Russian and Chinese borders. With so may countries vying for resource-security with these Stans, like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, they can play NATO and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) to get what they want.

America

America's biggest problem is that it thinks that everyone else's problem is also theirs. As a former Uzbek official puts it, "Western strategy should change from labeling a leader 'our son of a bitch' to just plain 'son of a bitch' "(p.104) Because the Stans have so many options as to which sphere of influence they want to be in, why would they pick a superpower that dictates what type of government it should have? These nations only want financial support, not governmental support.

However, the US and EU serve a very important purpose in this area of the world. For example, "When CNPC purchased PetroKazakhstan significantly about market value in 2005, the United States and Russia sided with the Kazakh government's decision to declare the firm a strategic asset, reallocate its refining and production segments, and delay its sale" (p.88). *PetroKazakhstan is actually a Calgary company based in Kazakhstan and China finally bought it for $4.2 billion dollars - for more information, please go to http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9503EED9113FF934A15753C1A9639C8B63*

For a good video, please refer to http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_4170000/newsid_4174200/4174242.stm?bw=nb&mp=rm&news=1&ms3=4&ms_javascript=true&bbcws=2

Therefore, without the US and the EU being there, China would buy all it can, and take control of the Heartland.

China

China is the big player in this region. It has an advantage, unlike the other superpowers: its geopolitics. China borders Siberia, Far East, Mongolia, XinJiang, and Tibet. Because there is such a low population in these areas, it is easy for the Chinese to move in and begin their own businesses, using their resources.

From http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/gfo/lowres/gfon405l.jpg

In Mongolia, the mines are worked by Chinese labourers, and the mining counts for 70% of the country's exports (p.73). When the Chinese begin to move into the place, they bring with them their industry, bringing development and modernity to the land. The "Tibetans and the Turkic, Muslim Uyghurs are being lifted out of the third world" (p.80). China gave them roads, telephone lines, hospitals, jobs, and increased educational standards promoting basic education. Because these areas are so sparse, it is hard for them to control the degree of Chineseness. For example, in Siberia, Russia pretty much isolated them and provided no leadership. This, of course, made it easy for China to sneak in for its oil deposits. The same goes for the Far East. Since Russia provided them with no support, China actually developed the land in ways that Russia hadn't, and occupying it in the process (p.73). Although the SCO is a venture with both China and Russia, China has taken the lead and Russia is falling behind.

China is the perfect country for the nations in this part to ally with. It doesn't care about the politics of that area, whether it is corrupt like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, or with Taliban, like the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. China just wants trade and access to raw materials, oil and water. Although this may not lead to stability in these areas and the population within these countries may still suffer, China is extending its sphere of influence by having a sort of hands-off policy. They don't try to infringe upon each country's sovereignty. This, I think, it China's biggest success.

Summary

China is winning in the Heartland and the West's influence will continue to loose relevance. This is because of "China's remarkable ability to shape both infrastructure and markets through shrewd diplomacy"(p.116).

Part I - Conclusion: Stretching Europe

According to Parag Khanna, "the EU is gradually demonstrating its growing willingness to transform every country within its reach - as it does better than any other superpower". However, a looming question for the EU is that there are so many countries that all need each other. The EU as a superpower requires the cooperation of all of its members. Unlike China and the United States, decisions are going to be extremely difficult to make, since each country has its own agenda, there is not a consistent voice. Also, by having so many different countries, there are also going to be many enemies obtained. Would one country want to have more power than the rest? Would that result in unrest within the EU nations? Right now, the expansion of the EU is far from over, especially if it wants to survive the expansion of China and the US.

From http://www.intoon.com/toons/2005/KeefeM20050601.jpg